刘成坤.农村人口老龄化与农业全要素生产率的区域异质性[J].,2021,(6):46-55
农村人口老龄化与农业全要素生产率的区域异质性
Rural Population Aging and Regional Heterogeneity of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity
投稿时间:2021-06-17  
DOI:
中文关键词:  农村人口老龄化  农业全要素生产率  人力资本  农业产业化
英文关键词:rural population aging  total factor productivity of agriculture  human capital  agricultural industrialization
基金项目:国家自然科学基金地区项目(72063009)
作者单位
刘成坤 江西财经大学 统计学院 
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中文摘要:
      基于2000—2018年中国省际层面的面板数据,采用DEA Malmquist模型测算农业全要素生产率,构建中介效应模型实证分析农村人口老龄化对农业全要素生产率的影响。研究结果表明:得益于技术进步,农业全要素生产率在样本期间实现了小幅增长;农村人口老龄化对农业全要素生产率的影响显著为正,农村人口老龄化会通过人力资本积累效应推动全要素生产率增长,同时也会通过劳动力供给效应和科研投入效应对全要素生产率增长产生显著的阻碍作用。此外,农村人口老龄化对农业全要素生产率的影响还存在显著的区域异质性,农村人口老龄化对中西部地区农业全要素生产率的影响并不显著,但会显著阻碍东部地区农业全要素生产率的提高。因此,应该通过加快农业机械化进程、大力推广现代农业种植技术以及鼓励大学生到农村地区就业和创业等途径推动农业全要素生产率增长。
英文摘要:
      Based on China’s inter provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018, firstly, the DEA Malmquist model is used to measure the total factor productivity of agriculture, then construct a mediating effect model to empirical research how the rural population aging affects agricultural total factor productivity. Research results show: Due to technological progress, the total factor productivity of agriculture has achieved a small increase during the sample period; the rural population aging has a significant positive impact on the total factor productivity of agriculture, and the rural population aging would promote the total factor productivity through the human capital accumulation effect, at the same time, the rural population aging will also significantly hinder the growth of total factor productivity through labor supply effect and scientific research investment effect. In addition, there is significant regional heterogeneity in the impact of the rural population aging on the total productivity of agriculture, the aging of the rural population does not have a significant impact on the total factor productivity of agriculture in the central and western regions, but it will significantly hinder the improvement of the total factor productivity of agriculture in the eastern region. Therefore, the growth of agricultural total factor productivity should be promoted by accelerating the process of agricultural mechanization, vigorously promoting modern agricultural planting technology, and encouraging college students to find employment and entrepreneurship in rural areas.
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