郭贯成,陈盈蒙.家庭生命周期与农户宅基地退出意愿[J].,2022,(4):23-33
家庭生命周期与农户宅基地退出意愿
Family Life Cycle on Farmers’ Willingness to Exit Rural Residential Land
  
DOI:10.7671/j.issn.1672-0202.2022.04.003
中文关键词:  推拉理论  家庭生命周期  宅基地  退出意愿
英文关键词:push-pull theory  family life cycle  residential land  willingness to exit residential land
基金项目:国家社会科学基金重点项目(20AGL024)
作者单位
郭贯成 南京农业大学 1.公共管理学院 中国资源环境与发展研究院,江苏 南京 21009 
陈盈蒙 南京农业大学 1.公共管理学院 
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中文摘要:
      以推拉理论作为分析框架,利用 CLES团队 2020年在苏北调研的 1012户农户的调查数据,构建 Logit模型和多元回归模型,实证分析了不同家庭生命周期下影响农户作出宅基地退出选择的重要推力和拉力因素,进一步揭示了家庭生命周期对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响机理。实证结果表明:(1)家庭生命周期是影响农户作出宅基地退出决策的重要因素,按照退出意愿强度大小可排列为:稳定家庭 < 空巢家庭 <抚养家庭 <扩大家庭 <赡养家庭;(2)老人比、户主受教育年限、农地转出面积占比等因素是影响宅基地退出的重要推力因素,而家庭恩格尔系数、家庭平均年龄和宅基地继承认知是影响宅基地退出的重要拉力因素;(3)不同家庭生命周期的农户家庭选择退出宅基地的推拉力因素也有着显著的差异。
英文摘要:
      Taking the push-pull theory as the analytical framework, using the survey data of 1012 farmers surveyed by the CLES team in Northern Jiangsu in 2020, this paper constructs a logit model and multiple regression model to empirically analyze the important thrust and pull factors affecting farmers’ choice of homestead exit under different family life cycles. It further reveals the impact mechanism of family life cycle on farmers’ willingness to exit rural residential land. The empirical results show that: (1)family life cycle is an important factor affecting farmers’ choice of homestead exit. According to the intensity of willingness, it can be arranged as follows: stable family<empty nest family<raising family<expanding family<supporting family. (2)The elderly ratio, education years of the head of household, the proportion of agricultural land transferred out area and other factors are important driving factors affecting homestead withdrawal, while Engel coefficient, average family age and homestead inheritance cognition are important pulling factors affecting homestead withdrawal. (3)There are also significant differences in the push and pull factors of farmers’ choice to withdraw from homestead in different family life cycles. On this basis, the paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions.
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