赵玉菡,李先德.乌克兰危机对全球粮食安全的影响与中国应对策略[J].,2022,(6):91-103
乌克兰危机对全球粮食安全的影响与中国应对策略
The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global Food Security and China′s Coping Strategies
  
DOI:10.7671/j.issn.1672-0202.2022.06.00
中文关键词:  乌克兰危机  农产品贸易  粮食安全  农产品市场
英文关键词:russia-ukraine conflict  global agricultural trade  food security  agricultural commodities market
基金项目:国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(71961147001);中国农业科学院科技创新工程“国际农业经济与贸易”项目(10-IAED-04-2022)
作者单位
赵玉菡 中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所,北京 10008 
李先德 中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所,北京 10008 
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中文摘要:
      构建“乌克兰危机—全球农产品市场—全球粮食安全”分析框架,系统分析乌克兰危机对全球农产品市场的直接和间接影响,以及其连锁效应对全球粮食安全的潜在影响。分析表明,全球农资和能源价格上涨,将引发全球农业生产成本大幅上升;受运输中断和出口限制措施的影响,全球农产品贸易规模下降、全球农产品供应趋紧;国际农产品价格飙升,将影响全球农产品消费的稳定性。多重因素叠加导致全球贫困和饥饿人口增加,加剧粮食安全问题。面对乌克兰危机造成的复杂形势,中国粮食安全受到的负面影响总体可控,但部分农产品面临进口风险和保供稳价压力,并波及中国农产品贸易对外布局。因此,中国应在确保主粮绝对安全的基础上,建立保障“大食物”安全的农业供给体系;完善国内价格“防火墙”机制;坚持国际农产品进口多元化,并积极推动多边农业合作。
英文摘要:
      A framework of “Russia-Ukraine conflict-Global agricultural commodities market-Global food security” is built to analyze the direct and indirect impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global agricultural commodities market, and its potential chain effect on global food security.The result showed that the cost of global agricultural production has risen as a result of the sharp increase in energy and fertilizer prices;the volume of global agricultural trade has declined and the supply of global agricultural products has tightened due to the transportation disruptions and export restrictions on agricultural products; the stability of global food consumption has been threatened given the soaring food prices. A combination of multiple factors has aggravated the global problems of poverty, hunger, and food insecurity. The negative impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on China′s domestic food security is still well under control.However, some agricultural products have been exposed to import risks and face pressure to maintain supply sufficiency and price stability, which further affects China′s international trade strategies in agricultural products. Therefore, this paper suggests that China should adopt a “Greater Food” approachon the basis of ensuring the staple food security, improve the “firewall” mechanism of domestic food prices, adhere to principle of the diversification of agricultural imports, and actively promote the multilateral cooperation worldwide.
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