中国对自美进口农产品加征反制关税的政策效应研究
A study on the Policy Effect of China's Imposition of Counter-tariffs on Agricultural Products Imported from the United States
投稿时间:2022-02-03  修订日期:2022-05-01
DOI:
中文关键词:  中美贸易摩擦  关税反制  农产品进口  双重差分模型
英文关键词:Sino-US trade friction  tariff countermeasures  agricultural imports  difference-in-differences model
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目);广东省普通高校创新强校工程青年创新人才项目;国家留学基金管理委员会“国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目”;广东外语外贸大学重大培育项目
作者单位邮编
张建武 广东外语外贸大学 510006
钟晓凤 广东外语外贸大学南国商学院 510006
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中文摘要:
      使用2017至2019年HS8位码的进口数据,基于双重差分模型研究中国对自美进口农产品加征反制关税的政策效应。研究发现:(1)中国对美进口农产品加征关税显著降低了中国自美农产品进口额,贸易抑制效应显著,但仅存在部分贸易转移效应。(2)政策实施后中国自美农产品进口额下降的部分影响因素来源于美国企业降低农产品对华平均出口价格,政策效果显著,在一定程度证明美国农产品出口对华市场具有较强的依赖性。(3)一般贸易分类下的贸易抑制效应(-0.74)、贸易总效应(-0.30)、贸易转移效应(0.44)相比不区分贸易方式异质性的全样本估计效果依次增强了0.26、0.11、0.15,这意味着中国对美一般贸易分类下的进口农产品实施关税反制的政策影响更强劲。
英文摘要:
      Taking the HS eight-digit data of Chinese agricultural imports from 2017 to 2019, the policy effect of China's imposition of counter-tariffs on agricultural products imported from the United States has been empirically studied based on the difference-in-differences (DID) model. The empirical results show that: first, China's imposition of tariffs on US significantly reduces the amount of China's agricultural imports from US, and the trade restraint effect is significant, but there is only a partial trade transfer effect. Second, China's tariff countermeasures against imported agricultural products from US is effective, because American enterprises bear the main tariff costs, and it also proves to a certain extent that U.S. agricultural exports have a strong dependence on the Chinese market. Third, the trade inhibition effect (-0.74), total trade effect (-0.30) and trade transfer effect (0.44) under general trade classification have increased by 0.26, 0.114 and 0.146 respectively compared with the full sample estimation effect. This means that China's policy impact of imposing tariffs on agricultural imports from US under the general trade classification is stronger.
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