中国粮食的真实进口规模与自给率
The Scale of China’s Grain Net Import and Its Self-sufficiency Rate
投稿时间:2022-02-28  修订日期:2022-04-30
DOI:
中文关键词:  粮食隐性贸易  粮食真实进口量  粮食贸易平衡表  粮食自给率  粮食安全战略
英文关键词:visible trade in grain  the real scale of grain importation  balance sheet of grain trade in physical amounts  self-sufficiency rate of grain  strategies for food security
基金项目:农产品国际贸易格局变化背景下确保中国粮食安全研究,国家社会科学基金一般项目(19BJY129);新时代乡村振兴战略与“三农”问题研究,教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(20JZD031)
作者单位邮编
熊启泉 华南农业大学 广东农村经济研究中心 广东 广州 510642 510642
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中文摘要:
      中国现行粮食进口量的统计是不完整的。本文区分了粮食显性贸易和粮食隐性贸易,进而构造了粮食真实进口量的测算方法。基于对粮食隐性进口量的估计,本文构建了中国粮食贸易平衡表,获得了中国粮食真实进口量及进口结构数据。研究发现:2000—2020年间,中国粮食真实进口规模为153412万吨,其中,粮食显性净进口126463万吨,占82.43%,粮食隐性净进口26949万吨,占17.57%。近年来,中国粮食真实进口规模不断扩大,并呈明显的隐性化趋势。中国粮食进口隐性化,在一定程度上掩盖了国内粮食自给率下降和确保粮食安全之间的矛盾。从口粮看,当前中国人的饭碗仍牢牢端在自己手中,但我国国内粮食市场紧平衡的压力越来越大,亟需切实可行之措施,确保国家粮食安全战略的实施。
英文摘要:
      The existing statistical measuring of China Grain net import is incomplete. This article distinguishes explicit grain trade from implicit grain trade, and develops a tentative concept of the real scale of grain import measuring the import of grain in a broad sense. Based on the estimates of China’s net import of grain embedded in the foreign trade deficit of grains-related agricultural products, the article constructs China’s balance sheet of grain trade in physical amounts, and thereby obtaining the scale of China’s real net import of grain and its structure. The results show that the net importation of grain from 2000 through 2020 totaled 1534.12 millions tons, of which the explicit net import of grain totaled 1264.63 million tons, accounting for 82.43%, whereas the implicit net importation of grain totaled 26.949 million tons, accounting for 17.57%. In recent years, both the real net import of various grains and the grain equivalents converted from trade deficient of grain-related agricultural products are in an upward trend. China’s grain import presents a hidden growing trend. The implicit growth of grain import is, to some extent, covering up the contradiction between the declining rate of the self-sufficiency of grain in China’s domestic market and the aim of ensuring food security. In a perspective of grain ration, the bowels of Chinese people are still firmly controlled in the hands of Chinese people, but there exists an indisputable fact that China’s grain market is facing a growing pressure of maintaining a strained balance between demand and supply, China should take practicable measures to ensure the implementation of strategies for national food security.
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