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| 机器人应用与农民工劳动供给 |
| Robot Applications and Migrant Labor Supply--Evidence from the Monitoring of Mobility Dynamics |
| 投稿时间：2024-04-08 修订日期：2024-10-10 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 机器人 农民工 劳动供给 劳动参与 劳动时间 |
| 英文关键词:robots, migrant workers, labor supply, labor participation, labor time |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 技术是增长之源,就业是民生之本。近年来智能机器人的应用对我国劳动力就业市场带来了广泛而深远的影响。本文以农民工这一规模庞大、流动性强的特殊群体为研究对象,从劳动供给视角出发,基于国际机器人联盟(IFR)数据和中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)数据,实证考察机器人应用对农民工劳动参与和劳动时间的影响及作用机制。研究发现：工业机器人的应用并没有严重挤占农民工劳动市场,挤出农民工劳动群体。机器人应用水平提升会显著增加农民工的劳动参与,同时显著降低农民工劳动供给时间。利用工具变量法缓解潜在内生性问题,并经过改变估计模型、考虑样本选择偏差、替换解释变量、改变研究样本和增加控制变量等稳健性检验后,研究结论依然成立。机制分析表明,机器人应用主要通过促进产业结构升级转换、提高工资率影响农民工的劳动供给。异质性分析显示,机器人应用对农民工劳动供给的影响存在地区、代际、性别、流动时间和技能水平差异。同时,基于就业身份和职业类型的不同,进一步考察了农民工劳动供给的结构性差异。本文研究结果对于正确认识并积极应对机器人对就业的影响、协同推动机器人应用和保民生、稳就业政策目标的实现具有启示意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Technology is the source of growth and employment is the basis of people"s livelihood. The application of intelligent robots in recent years has brought extensive and far-reaching impacts on China"s labor employment market. Taking migrant workers, a large and mobile special group, as the research object, this paper empirically examines the impact of robot applications on migrant workers" labor participation and labor time and the mechanism of action from the perspective of labor supply based on data from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) and the China Mobility Dynamics Monitoring Survey (CMDS). The study finds that the application of industrial robots does not seriously crowd out the labor market of migrant workers and squeeze out the migrant labor group. The increased level of robot application significantly increases the labor participation of migrant workers while significantly decreasing the labor supply time of migrant workers. Using the instrumental variables approach to mitigate potential endogeneity issues and after robustness tests such as changing the estimation model, accounting for sample selection bias, replacing explanatory variables, changing the study sample, and adding control variables, the study findings still hold. The mechanism analysis shows that robot applications affect the labor supply of migrant workers mainly by promoting industrial structural upgrading and transformation and increasing the wage rate. Heterogeneity analysis shows that there are regional, generational, gender, mobility time and skill level differences in the impact of robot applications on migrant workers" labor supply. Meanwhile, the structural differences in labor supply of migrant workers are further examined based on the differences in employment status and occupation types. The findings of this paper have implications for the proper understanding and positive response to the impact of robots on employment, and for the synergistic promotion of robot applications and the achievement of policy goals of preserving people"s livelihood and stabilizing employment. |
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