Based on the 2016 and 2018 Chinese Family Tracking Survey data (CFPS), this paper empirically studies the impact of neighborhood effects on farmers' risk of falling into poverty in the future by constructing a poverty vulnerability measurement model and a Manski social interaction effect model. The study found that: overall, the poverty vulnerability of rural areas in China is at a relatively low level. In 2017, the poverty vulnerability of rural residents increased compared with 2015. At the same time, it showed the characteristics of different regions and individual characteristics with significant differences, and the existence of high vulnerability groups among non-poor groups. Poverty has a neighborhood effect. Poor neighborhood effects have a significant adverse effect on the current and future poverty status of rural residents. The interaction effects of individual association effects and scenarios exert varying degrees of impact on poverty and poverty vulnerability. The neighborhood effect of impoverished communities plays a significant role in increasing the per capita net income of rural residents, and the marginal effect of impediments on low-income groups is significantly higher than that of high-income groups. There are obvious regional differences in the impact of poor neighborhoods on the poverty vulnerability of rural residents. The neighborhood effect in Northeast China does not have a significant impact on poverty vulnerability. The neighborhood effect in the western region has a higher marginal effect on poverty vulnerability than other regions.