多维城乡差距与中国经济包容性增长
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1.中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;2.河南师范大学商学院;3.中国农业科学院

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中国农业科学院科技创新工程(ASTIP-IAED-2020-08)


Multidimensional Urban-rural Gap and Inclusive Growth in China
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1.Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences;2.School of Business,Henan Normal University;3.Office of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

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    摘要:

    采用Hicks-Moorsteen指数对中国省域以多维城乡差距为非期望产出的包容性全要素生产率进行测度和比较分析,结果表明:(1)考虑多维城乡差距的包容性TFP指数低于传统TFP指数,技术进步的快速下降是导致TFP指数下降的重要原因。(2)城乡差距较小的东部地区包容性TFP指数高于中西部地区,包容性经济增长存在区域差异。(3)滞后一期的城乡产业发展差距对包容性经济增长具有显著的抑制作用。全国以及中西部的经济发展水平与包容性经济增长存在“倒U型”关系,城乡差距较小的东部地区,地区经济发展与包容性经济增长正相关。城镇化率有助于推动全国以及东、中部地区包容性经济增长,但与西部地区包容性经济增长负相关。产业结构对包容性经济增长具有抑制作用。由此,要推动经济包容性增长,必须缩小多维城乡差距,注重经济高质量发展,推动产业合理布局,并根据各地区不同的经济发展以及城乡发展阶段采取不同的发展战略。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, with multidimensional urban-rural gaps as undesired outputs, we use the Hicks-Moorsteen index to measure and analyze inclusive total factor productivity (TFP) in provincial level data. Using the dynamic GMM estimation method, we analyze the influencing factors of inclusive TFP index. The results show: First, the inclusive TFP which including multidimensional urban-rural gaps is much smaller than the traditional TFP. The rapid decline in technological progress is an important reason for the decline of the TFP. Second, the inclusive growth is higher in eastern region than those in the central and western regions, and there are regional differences in inclusive economic growth. Third, the urban-rural industrial gap in the lagging phase has a significant negative impact on inclusive economic TFP. There is an “inverted U-shaped” relationship between economic development and inclusive economic TFP in the whole country and the central and western regions while the economic development is positively related to inclusive economic growth in the eastern region where the urban-rural gap is smaller. The urbanization rate contributes to the inclusive economic growth of the whole country and the east and central regions, but is negatively correlated with the inclusive economic growth of the western region. Industrial structure has a suppressive effect on inclusive economic growth. Thus, to promote economic inclusion, it is necessary to narrow the gap between urban and rural industrial development, promote a rational industrial layout, and adopt different development strategies according to the different economic development stages of each region as well as urban and rural development stages.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-12-12
  • 最后修改日期:2021-02-19
  • 录用日期:2021-03-10
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