Abstract:Using panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2012 to 2018, the resilience of peasant families is dynamically estimated based on the theories of poverty trap and nonlinear dynamics. The agricultural insurance development index and agricultural total factor productivity were derived using inter-provincial data, and the impact of agricultural insurance development on household economic resilience was examined from the perspective of household heterogeneity. Agricultural insurance has been found to significantly increase the resilience of farmers' families, with an effective transmission mechanism for agricultural insurance to play a role being the development of agricultural total factor production. Farmers are divided into three groups based on the marginal impact characteristics of agricultural insurance: high efficiency, low efficiency, and ineffective. Further research noted that across the sample period, there was an exchange between various types of farmers, with the number of highly efficient types gradually increasing and the proportion of low-efficiency and ineffective types constantly decreasing. Agricultural insurance has a noticeable beneficial effect only once a farmer's family resilience reaches a particular level. The marginal effect of agricultural insurance eventually declines as resilience improves.