Based on the 2016-2018 CMDS data, this paper verifies the regional differences in the long-term settlement intention of mobile population, and uses the spatial econometric models (SARAR and SEM) to empirically analyze the influencing factors. The study shows that the current general trend of population mobility remains unchanged, and the long-term settlement intention in the north is higher than that in the south, and in the east than in the west. At the same time, the spatial clustering distribution of the mobile population's long-term settlement intention is obvious. East China and Northeast China are always the areas where long-term settlement intention “hot spots” cities gather. Finally, analyze the factors influencing mobile population’s long-term settlement intention in terms of urban inclusion, social integration ability and family characteristics. Social integration ability is the most important. Specifically, mobile population’s marriage rate, their average education level and average time settling in the inflowing cities are significantly positively correlated with their settlement intention. However, a higher proportion of inter-provincial mobility significantly reduces their long-term settlement intention. The importance of urban inclusion is limited, but the positive impact of public health service on long-term settlement intention has increased, and two economic factors of average wage income and housing spending have begun to gain importance. Family characteristics have always been a major factor in the long-term settlement decision of mobile population, which is in line with the new economic migration theory.