基于地缘关系视角的中国食物对外依赖风险分析
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1.浙江外国语学院;2.浙江科技学院

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国家社会科学基金一般项目(22BJY086)


Risk Analysis of China’s Food Dependence on Foreign Countries from the Perspective of Geopolitical Relations
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1.Zhejiang International Studies University;2.Zhejiang University of Science and Technology

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    摘要:

    基于FAO的食物生产和贸易数据、Google的GDELT事件数据,通过测算中国食物对外依赖率、地缘关系强度、食物对外依赖风险指数,从地缘关系视角考察中国食物进口的对外依赖风险。研究表明,中国的食物进口主要源自世界五大洲,其中大豆进口依赖美洲、牛肉进口依赖南美洲和大洋洲、婴儿食品进口依赖欧洲、棕榈油进口依赖亚洲、大麦进口依赖欧洲和大洋洲。在进口依赖率提高与地缘关系强度减弱的共同推动下,中国对巴西大豆和牛肉;,新西兰、法国和德国婴儿食品;,印度尼西亚棕榈油;、乌克兰大麦的进口依赖风险逐渐扩大,而对澳大利亚和乌拉圭牛肉、加拿大大麦的进口依赖风险剧烈波动。因此,我们在增强食物自给能力的同时,应不断拓宽食物进口渠道,降低贸易风险,并积极参与世界粮农治理,把握食物安全的主动权。

    Abstract:

    FAO’s food production and trade data and Google’s GDELT event data are used to measure the dependence rate of China’s food on importing countries, the strength of geopolitical relations, and the risk index of food dependence on foreign countries, so as to examine the risk of China’s food dependence on foreign countries from the geopolitical perspective. The results show that China's food imports mainly come from five continents of the world, including that soybean imports depend on the Americas, beef imports depend on South America and Oceania, baby food imports depend on Europe, palm oil imports depend on Asia, barley imports depend on Europe and Oceania. Driven by the increase of import dependence rate and the weakening of geographical relationship, China's risk of import dependence on Brazilian soybeans and beef, on New Zealand, France and Germany baby food, on Indonesian palm oil, and on Ukrainian barley is gradually expanding, while the risk of import dependence on Australian and Uruguayan beef and Canadian barley fluctuates sharply. Therefore, while enhancing food self-sufficiency, we should continue to expand food import channels, reduce trade risks, and actively participate in world food and agriculture governance to grasp the initiative of food security.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-01-30
  • 最后修改日期:2023-04-04
  • 录用日期:2023-06-20
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