共同富裕背景下弱相对贫困群体的识别与时空演化分析
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1.山西财经大学;2.山西财经大学 统计学院

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国家社科基金项目;山西省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目


Identification and spatiotemporal evolution of weak relative poor groups in the context of common prosperity
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School of Statistics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

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    摘要:

    基于家庭等价规模修正后的弱相对贫困界定标准,依托中国家庭追踪调查数据运用分层可加综合贫困指数测算我国分城乡和地区的弱相对贫困程度,进而综合时空双重视角,描绘其随时间转移特征和未来可能演化趋势,整体刻画其分布格局和集聚特征。结果发现:第一,现阶段农村弱相对贫困程度高于城镇,但测度指标的数值下降幅度更大。第二,现阶段各种不同程度的弱相对贫困均有显著改善的可能性,但改善至最优类型或返贫至最差类型均较为困难;马尔科夫链及核密度估计法测算结果提醒我国弱相对贫困存在两极分化的潜在可能。第三,我国弱相对贫困的空间分布呈现东部—东北—中部—西部逐级递增的格局,需警惕区域内部各省差距对该分布格局贡献率的增加;集聚特征呈现西部存在“高-高”集聚的“空间贫困陷阱”及东部存在“低-低”集聚的“脱贫溢出效应”。研究表明,修正后的弱相对贫困界定标准可减少低收入和中等收入群体之间的交叉误判;现阶段面向乡村振兴和共同富裕的相对贫困治理,必然是一个阶段性和长期性的过程,必然需要构建全社会共同参与、协同配合的长效机制。

    Abstract:

    Based on the weak relative poverty definition criterion modified by the household Equivalent Scale method, this paper used the HAOPI to measure the degree of weak relative poverty by urban and rural areas and by regions of our country based on the data from the China Family Panel Studies. Furthermore, it described its transfer characteristics over time and possible evolution trend in the future from the perspective of time and space. Finally, it described the overall distribution pattern and agglomeration characteristics.The results show that, first, the degree of weak relative poverty in rural areas is higher than that in urban areas, but the decline in the values of measurement indicators is greater. Second, at present, all kinds of weak relative poverty have great possibility to improve, but it is difficult to improve to the best type or fall to the worst type. The results of markov chain and kernel density estimation remind us of the potential polarization of weak relative poverty. Third, the spatial distribution of weak relative poverty in China showed a step-by-step increasing pattern from the east to the northeast to the middle to the west, and it was necessary to pay attention to the increasing contribution rate of intra-provincial disparities to the distribution pattern. The agglomeration characteristics show that there is a "spatial poverty trap" of "high-high" agglomeration in the west and a "poverty alleviation spillover effect" of "low-low" agglomeration in the east. This research argues that the modified definition can reduce the cross miscalculation between low-income groups and middle-income groups. At this stage, the relative poverty management for rural revitalization and common prosperity is bound to be a phased and long-term process, and it is necessary to build a long-term mechanism with the participation and coordination of the whole society.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-18
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-18
  • 录用日期:2025-06-03
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