乡村振兴重点帮扶政策的收入效应、区域差异与空间溢出 ——基于县域面板的准自然实验研究
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中国人民大学

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国家自然科学基金面上项目“全域土地综合整治助推乡村振兴的机理、效应及优化路径研究”(编号:72373153)。


Income Effect, Regional Difference and Spatial Spillover of Key Support Policies for Rural Revitalization —Quasi-natural Experimental Study Based on County Panel
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China Renmin University College of Agriculture and Rural Development

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    摘要:

    提高农村居民收入是缩小城乡收入差距与实现共同富裕的核心目标。文章基于2016—2023年县域面板数据,以2021年实施的乡村振兴重点帮扶县政策为准自然实验,构建双重差分模型(DID),并结合空间计量经济模型,系统评估该政策对农村居民可支配收入的影响及其区域差异与空间溢出效应。研究发现:(1)重点帮扶政策显著提升了试点县农村居民人均可支配收入,结论在多重稳健性检验下依然成立。(2)政策通过促进非农就业、扩大金融支持和增加教育投入等作用机制发挥增收作用。(3)政策效应存在显著区域差异,在非民族地区、非革命老区;低自然灾害风险区域及非生态功能区的效果更为突出。(4)政策具有显著的空间溢出效应,对相邻县域的收入增长也产生带动作用。研究表明,应在保持总体政策稳定性的同时,强化区域差异化帮扶和跨区域协同机制,提升政策的整体效能。

    Abstract:

    Raising rural residents’ income is central to narrowing the urban-rural income gap and achieving common prosperity. Using county-level panel data from 2016 to 2023 and leveraging the 2021 implementation of the Rural Revitalization Key Support County Policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper employs a difference-in-differences (DID) framework combined with spatial econometric models to systematically evaluate the policy’s impact on rural residents’ disposable income, its regional heterogeneity, and spatial spillover effects. The findings are as follows: (1) The key support policy significantly increases per capita disposable income among rural residents in targeted counties, and this result remains robust across a range of sensitivity tests. (2) The policy enhances income primarily by promoting off-farm employment, expanding access to financial services, and increasing educational investment. (3) The policy’s effects vary significantly across regions, with stronger impacts observed in non-ethnic minority areas, non-revolutionary base regions, counties with low natural disaster risk, and those outside ecological function zones. (4) The policy generates significant spatial spillovers, positively influencing income growth in neighboring counties. These findings suggest that while maintaining overall policy stability, differentiated regional support mechanisms and cross-regional coordination should be strengthened to enhance the policy’s overall effectiveness.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-21
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-04
  • 录用日期:2026-04-07
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