人工智能赋能农村养老:理论基础、实现路径与风险挑战
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作者单位:

1.北京大学现代农学院、中国农业政策研究中心;2.北京大学现代农学院

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中图分类号:

F241;C913

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金重大项目“乡村振兴情景动态模拟与路径探索”(42293273)、国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(A类)“农村教育管理与政策”(71925009)


Empowering Rural Elderly Care with AI: Theoretical Framework, Practical Paths, and Key Challenges
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1.School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, China Center for Agricultural Policy, Peking University,;2.School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University

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    摘要:

    我国农村人口高龄化、空巢化问题日益严峻,农村养老面临家庭养老功能弱化与公共服务短缺并存的困境,人工智能技术为破解这一困境提供了新的可能性。文章基于人力资本理论、生命周期假说与公共经济学等理论,文章构建了人工智能赋能农村养老的经济学解释框架,揭示人工智能推动老年人力资本从“折旧消耗”转向“经验增值”、养老资源配置从“静态跨期储蓄”转向“动态风险共担”的核心逻辑。基于农村养老的需求刚性、政策支撑、技术可行、设施改善与组织保障等现实基础,提出“智能守护”降低健康安全风险、“资源下沉”缓解医疗资源不均、“价值再造”延展老年人力资本、“社保优化”实现跨期保障平滑的四条实践路径。然而,AI技术应用亦伴生数字鸿沟、服务缺位、支付约束与算法歧视等风险挑战,须构建适老化配套、智能化统筹、多元化筹资与公共化治理的多元政策体系,确保老年群体从科技革新中公平受益。

    Abstract:

    The aging population and empty-nest phenomenon in rural China are becoming increasingly severe. The declining capacity of family-based elderly care combined with the insufficiency of public services poses significant challenges. Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers a potential solution to these challenges. Drawing on Human Capital Theory, the Life-Cycle Hypothesis, and Public Economics, this paper develops an economic framework for AI-enabled rural elderly care. It explains how AI counteracts the depreciation of elderly skills by revitalizing their tacit knowledge as productive assets, and facilitates transformation of the resource allocation for the purpose of elderly care from static intertemporal savings into a dynamic risk-sharing system. Taking into account the essential demand, policy support, technological maturity, and infrastructure upgrades, the paper proposes four pathways: a.) Intelligent Guardianship to mitigate health risks through multimodal monitoring; b.) Resource Decentralization by channeling urban medical expertise into rural areas via telemedicine; c.) Value Reinvention by extending the elderly’s human capital; and d.) Social Security Optimization to ensure smooth intertemporal protection through smart actuarial planning. However, these pathways also face risks and challenges, including the digital divide, service gaps, affordability constraints, and algorithmic discrimination. Therefore, it is urgent to develop a comprehensive and integrated policy framework of age-friendly adaptation, intelligent coordination, diversified financing, and public governance, to ensure that the elderly benefit equitably from technological innovation.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-29
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-13
  • 录用日期:2026-01-16
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