灰色数列预测方法的应用—以香港猪肉市场为例
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    摘要:

    本文运用灰色数列预测方法对香港猪肉市场作中期、长期预测。首先,对此方法的适用性和建立模型的原理作简单的描述。预测结果表明:人均鲜猪肉消费下降,人均冷冻猪肉消费上升;两者一增一减,形成香港猪肉市场消费在今后将有温和增长的趋势。猪肉消费占全部肉类消费的40%~50%,猪肉消费中鲜猪肉占2/3强,冷冻猪肉占1/3弱。中国内地输往香港的鲜猪肉、冷冻猪肉均占相当大的比重,是我国大宗的创汇商品。为了增加出口创汇,本文建议,今后我国的猪肉出口应提高活猪的品质,改善冷冻猪肉的包装,以适应香港猪肉市场的要求。

    Abstract:

    In this article,the grey sequence forecast method was applied to make mid-term and long - term prediction on the pork consumption market in Hong Kong. At first, the applicability of this method and principle of establishing the model were briefly described. The forecasting results showed that the consumption of live swine per capita will decline and that of frozen pork rise. However, the interaction of these factors will constitute the tendency towards a comparatively mild rising of pork consumption in the years to come. In Hong Kong, the demand for pork occupied 40 - 50 per cent of the total meat consumption. In pork consumption, the proportion of live swine to frozen pork was found to be more than two to one. Live swine and frozen pork exported from Mainland China dominate the Hong Kong pork market) they are the staple export commodities for earning forgein exchange. Finally, in order to earn more forgein exchange by exporting more pork, suggestions were made to improve the quality of live swine and the processing and packing of frozen pork, so as to meet the needs of the Hong Kong market.

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程汉文 陈迭云.灰色数列预测方法的应用—以香港猪肉市场为例[J].华南农业大学学报,1991,(4):81-88

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